The Clelin Ferrell Problem
Written by: Michael Barnaud
Seldom can I say with near certainty that a player drafted in the first round will not pan out but this was one of those rare instances. The now-Las Vegas Raiders chose Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen with the number four pick in the draft. Ultimately, I think Ferrell will stay in the league and can be a solid starter but he is not a special talent nor will he be a perennial Pro-Bowler; the lofty but very real expectation for that top-10 draft pick fraternity.
I was not alone in this judgment; many were left scratching their heads when Mike Mayock pulled the trigger on the Clemson product. It seemed an odd move for a team that struggled so mightily to reach opposing quarterbacks during the 2018 season to draft a defensive end that is not a pure pass rusher. The Raiders were hoping for more than they got regardless of what they say in the media.
To his credit, I don’t think Ferrell is a terrible football player nor do I believe he will be a complete bust and out of the league in a year or two. He is a solid player against the run and fairly active in that regard but there is a massive hole in the young Raider’s game made even bigger by the position he plays: Ferrell can’t rush the quarterback.
The Raiders are clearly aware of this or they would not have played him inside on passing downs. As a matter of fact, there were times Ferrell was not on the field at all in pass rushing situations. Ferrell was so ineffective on the edge that the team turned to fourth-round draft pick Maxx Crosby to provide the pass rush Ferrell was supposed to. What teams say in the press is one thing; what actions they take on the field are another. The excuses have rolled in from those trying to defend the high draft pick. There are those who say sacks are not the complete measure of a pass rusher. While it is true that sacks don’t tell the whole story for defensive end, they definitely tell a great deal of it. Gruden, a known player’s coach, has defended Ferrell vehemently in the press, stating that Ferrell was playing inside partly out of “necessity”, which I don’t buy for a moment. I can’t recall a time Nick Bosa or Jadeveon Clowney was moved inside to a three-technique tackle because it helped the team. It doesn’t “help” a team to play someone out of position if they are truly great somewhere else. The awkward question for Gruden to answer, if any reporter had the sand to ask it, is “If he is that good on the edge, why aren’t you playing him there?”
The reality is this: Ferrell accounted for 4.5 sacks in 2019. On the surface, that number is underwhelming but not terrible for a rookie drafted in the top five. However, a closer examination reveals how misleading that still-modest number is. Three of Ferrell’s 4.5 sacks came against rookie Trey Pipkins of the Los Angeles Chargers who is arguably the worst pass blocking tackle in the NFL.
Drafted in the 3rd round out of powerhouse Division II program Sioux Falls, Pipkins is not starting material. It pains me to say that because he is a local product from a college in South Dakota I would like to see succeed in the league but my brain overrules my heart on matters of football. Pipkins stands at a towering 6’7 with a giant wingspan. He is a decent run blocker and his size helps him but when I watched his film from college, his feet concerned me. Those concerns turned out to be justified as the lengthy Pipkins struggled mightily in pass protection all season. To play left tackle in the NFL, there have to be no weaknesses in your game. You have to be agile enough to move with Von Miller and solid enough to stop a bull rush. Pipkins is probably 80% of that complete package but 80% leaves no future as a left tackle in the NFL; According to Pro Football Focus, Ferrell graded out better in the second half of the season than he did the first; playing Pipkins and the Chargers’ offensive line twice in that span will do that.
It’s often said that you can’t judge a player by his rookie campaign alone and there is some validity to that argument. Arik Armstead and Dontari Poe are just two examples among others who started slow but in time developed into impact players deserving of their high draft position. Examples such as these show that some do not mature until their second or third year in the league and Ferrell has the high-character attitude of a player who could improve in the NFL (his father was a military man) so there is reason for some optimism here but the Raiders utilization of him this year is concerning. Gruden and Mayock can say what they want about being pleased with Ferrell’s play and progress as a pro but the reality is you don’t take a 4-3 defensive end number four overall because he plays the run well. That dog won’t hunt. To warrant that pick in the draft, a defensive end must be adept at finding quarterbacks. What makes this pick especially ugly now is Josh Allen’s already proven prowess as a pass rusher in his rookie campaign. The Raiders’ biggest problem defensively is pressuring the quarterback and there is little question that Allen is a vastly more gifted rusher than Ferrell is. Allen and Nick Bosa of the 49ers are showing yet again that dominance on the edge need not take time if a player is the real deal, which is bad news if you’re a Raiders fan. For Ferrell to buck “bust” status, he has to find a pass rush, and he better do it quickly.
-Michael Barnaud
